| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 2026 | L | Colorado | 13-14 | 1589.1 | +21.2 | 1610.3 | 55.8% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Tennessee | 24-45 | 1610.3 | -30.1 | 1580.2 | 23.8% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Mercer | 44-11 | 1580.2 | -4.7 | 1575.5 | 96.0% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | L | Stanford | 27-34 | 1575.5 | -16.7 | 1558.8 | 73.3% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | Duke | 28-25 | 1551.8 | +33.4 | 1585.3 | 22.3% |